I actually did okay last season betting against the spread hitting on a little over 56%.  Good enough to make some money but not great enough to really brag about.  It is damn hard to pick against the spread.

NFL Week 1

Panthers @ Giants -6.5  – Line is too high and the Panthers always play the Giants tough.

Dolphins -3 @ Bills  – This is becoming such a popular pick that I started to think about picking the Bills.  Too many people will be picking the Dolphins in suicide pools and that would scare me.

Falcons -2.5 @ Steelers  – I think the Steelers are hungry, I think the Falcons are a little overrated, and the Steelers players seem to really like Dixon.

Lions @ Bears -6.5 – The Bears do not deserve to be giving a touchdown to anybody at this point.

Bengals @ Patriots -4.5 - The Bengals have fewer issues than the Patriots but I am going with the team with the QB and coach advantage here.  Add in the fact that both teams could prepare for this game for weeks you have to ask yourself, which coach do you think is better?

Browns@ Bucs -3 – This is an insane line.  The Browns showed a lot of improvement by the end of the season and had a nice preseason.  The Browns could win six games this year, the Bucs will again be drafting in the top three.

Broncos @ Jags -2.5 - I don’t get this one either, the line suggests the Broncos are better since the home team is giving less than three.  I do not think the Broncos are better, at all.

Colts -2.5 @ Texans – Peyton Manning or Matt Shaub.  Don’t be a hero, take Manning in every game until the spread starts to get stretched too far.  You feel much dumber when you go against Manning and lose than feeling smart when you win against him.

Raiders @ Titans -6 - My suicide pick, moving on since I do not want to jinx it.

Packers -3 @ Eagles – I love Green Bay, huge fan, season ticket holder and am a leader in the Packer hype machine but this game makes me very nervous.  Andy Reid is one of the best game-planners in the NFL, horrible at game management, but a great game-planner and he has had a lot of time to game-plan for this game.

49ers -3 @ Seahawks - Seattle is tough to play at and I think Matt Hasselback can be okay in the first half of the season.

Cardinals -4 @ Rams – I like the Cardinals to roll here, the Rams have a ton of holes to fill and a rookie QB.

Cowboys -3.5 @ Redskins – The Redskins always give the Cowboys troubles and now they have a better coach and QB.

Ravens @ Jets -2.5 – I think the Jets are so overrated.  They proclaimed themselves as the main contender and the media bought in.  MARK SANCHEZ IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH YET!  And the Jets bravado has pissed everyone else off in the league meaning teams will be up for the Jets every game.  The Jets will be like a defending champ where every game is like a super bowl for the opponent, good luck with that.

Chargers -4.5 @ Chiefs - I like Kansas City this year to make a move up.  I do not understand why the Chargers are even hesitating to sign Vincent Jackson.

Season Predictions

Everybody does these so mine are gonna be quick.

NFC Playoff Teams:  Green Bay, Dallas, New Orleans, San Fran, Minnesota, Atlanta

AFC Playoff Teams: New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Tennessee, Pittsburgh

Super Bowl:  Colts over Packers

College Picks

Auburn -1.5 at Mississippi State – Auburn is an under-rated team ready to make a run towards the SEC West title, Mississippi State is a year away from being a real pest.

Georgia +3 at South Carolina – I picked Georgia as my darkhorse so I am sticking with them.  I am nervous about AJ Green being out.

Iowa -13.5 vs Iowa State – I think this line is off by a touchdown.  It is a rivalry game but these programs are really far apart this season.

Oklahoma -7 vs Florida State – Oklahoma will be up for this game, they will use this game to get a lot of the taste of last season out of their mouth’s.  When the Sooners get it rolling they roll big.  This win will put them in the title talk.

Michigan +4 at Notre Dame – I thought Michigan looked much more explosive last week than Notre Dame.  If Michigan can hold onto the ball they will win.

Miami +8.5 at Ohio State – I do not trust Terrell Prior throwing the ball yet, I do trust Jacoby Harris.

Vikings at Saints

The line is Saints -5.  There has been a lot of momentum going against the Vikings in the last few weeks and for good reason.  Favre is actually hurt, Sydney Rice is out for a while, Brad Childress is still the coach, Percy Harvin is having migraine issues.  These are all real issues with the team, nobody is making them up.  The Vikings are way too talented to completely fade away, when they get their backs to the wall they can hand the ball to Adrian Peterson every play and still play good defense.  That formula alone can get them to 8 or 9 wins. 

But that formula will not be enough to hang with the Packers in the NFC North who will be scoring 30+ in every game this season and it will not be enough tonight against a fired up New Orleans Saints.  The Saints are the defending champions and how sick do you think they are of hearing about the Vikings.  The defending champs had their 15 minutes stolen from them this off-season with all of the Favre talk.  The Saints have also had to hear all off-season about how lucky they were to beat the Vikings, that the Vikings dominated the game.

I think New Orleans comes out FIRED UP!  I see New Orleans winning by multiple scores and easily covers the 5 point spread.

USA vs Russia

I read the preview on ESPN and I have to be honest this feels forced.  It just does not seem that important to me, and I do not feel it is that important to the US either.  If it was Kobe Bryant, Lebron James and Dwayne Wade would be there playing in this tournament.  Either way I will tune in today to check it out.

Also the US is favored by 24, TWENTY FOUR!!  So anything outside of a blowout would be an upset.