The Badgers received a 4 seed in the East. There are positives and negatives about where they were placed but overall I am happy with the seeding and placement. They get 1b of the 1a Kansas, 1b Kentucky pair of tourney K favorites, but they did get the K they can frustrate and take down to the wire.
4 Seed
It was nice to see that the loss to Illinois in the Big 10 tourney did not cause a drop. It is frustrating to think what could have been had the Badgers won that game, and even the Ohio State game. Would they have gotten Pittsburgh’s 3 seed out West with an outside shot at Villanova’s 2, who knows? What we do know is they likely did not drop much if at all with the loss.
First Weekend
I am happy with the first weekend’s draw. I must admit I know very little about Wofford but do know if the Badgers play good basketball they will win. The same can be said for any 1-4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Although this season Purdue and Vandy have tricky 4-13 games, it ususally is not until the 5-12 games where the favorite can play a good game but can still lose.
The 5-12 has been the breaking point for several years, it is at this game where the favorite is not definitively better than the underdog. When you add in the underdog playing the “Nobody believes in us” mode it makes sense that the games are a virtual toss up when considering the four 5-12 games. There will be at least one upset, one blowout, and the last two will be a tossup decided in the final seconds.
The Badgers second round game will be against Temple or Cornell. I like this due to the fact both teams are beatable and do not have more talent than the Badgers. The Badgers do not lose to teams they are equal to or better than in talent. Temple plays great defense, but so do the Badgers. Cornell is a great shooting team, but they will not be able to matchup against the swing offense. For Cornell to beat Wisconsin they will have to shoot a very high percentage from three, they are capable but I like Wisconsin’s odds. I have heard some compare this Cornell team to Davidson and that is ridiculous, there is no Stephen Curry on Cornell. I hate saying this, but “Nuff Said”!
I think it will be Temple-Wisconsin and the Badgers will be able to grind out a win. They have experience in tough games this year and have fared well, the main concern would be they Badgers have almost all of their quality wins at home.
Kentucky
Here is where the draw gets interesting, the potential Sweet 16 matchup with Kentucky. Kentucky is great, they have NBA talent and are the consensus 2nd dog in this tourney to Kansas, but this is not a bad matchup for Wisconsin.
Wisconsin Advantages
- Ryan will out-prepare Calipari in the off week. There is no way Calipari will be able to convince his stars that they will be in a close game against a team with no NBA talent, especially after they beat a talented Texas team in the 2nd round.
- Wisconsin’s pace will frustrate Kentucky. This will be a pace game where Kentucky will have to be patient with Wisconsin’s pace and not try to speed it up with their offense, that will lead to turnovers.
- Kentucky turns it over. As a lead in from the last point, Kentucky turns it over on their own in a regular game, if they are trying to speed up a disciplined team by forcing the offense it will lead to more turnovers.
- Wisconsin’s strengths are defensive rebounding and protecting the ball which both lead to limiting the number of possessions Kentucky gets. Less possessions leads to less opportunities to waste and Kentucky is not an efficient team.
- Kentucky is not a great outside shooting team. Three point shooting has knocked out the Badgers in each of the last three years against Xavier, Davidson and UNLV. That is not a Kentucky strength.
Kentucky advantages
- John Wall making plays. Wisconsin has good guards but Wall is good enough to take over at the end.
- Demarcus Cousins. Even though Wisconsin can protect the glass Cousins is a manchild inside.
- Patterson and Bledsoe. After the two studs Kentucky still has Patterson and Bledsoe. Four legit NBA prospects could be too much to handle for the Badgers.
I think Wisconsin “can” win. I hope Wisconsin will win. But I think this will turn into another tough tourney loss where Bo Ryan gets another shout out from the analysts. I can hear it now, “Great effort and game plan by the Badgers, but the talent of Kentucky was just too much to overcome in the end.”
After Kentucky
If Wisconsin can get the upset win over Kentucky I do like Wisconsin’s chances against the other side of the region. The best teams in the other half are West Virginia, New Mexico, Marquette, Clemson and Washington and I do not think Clemson nor Washington have a legit shot at getting through the first three. Whoever the Badgers would play in the elite eight would be an even matchup at worse, similar to the first two rounds, the Badgers would not be outmatched athletically. If Wisconsin gets past Kentucky I think the momentum would carry them through to the Final Four, even against a good West Virginia team. Wisconsin would be sky-high after the Kentucky win and I think they would be on fire from deep in the next game. The Kentucky win would generate such a high level of confidence I feel only Kansas would be capable of beating them two days later in the elite eight.
Wisconsin Prediction
For me the tourney comes down to that Kentucky game for the Badgers. Bo Ryan is too good of a coach to get upset in the first round. The second round opponent, Temple or Cornell, will not be a matchup problem for Wisconsin which means the game should come down to execution. I like Wisconsin in that scenario. Kentucky is an athletic beast. They could not differ more from Wisconsin, especially with Calipari now the coach. All players play four years and graduate from Wisconsin, as time goes on most of Kentucky’s players will be one and done then off to the NBA. Wisconsin takes care of the ball and plays efficient basketball without taking chances on defense, Kentucky takes chances on defense and offense with alley-oops that are risky but can generate huge momentum swings. Wisconsin “can” win but to do that they will need Kentucky to either take them lightly, get frustrated by the tempo, or both.
I predict Wisconsin to get bounced from the Sweet 16 in a close game, Kentucky 64 Wisconsin 57.
FanSided