Marquette and Villanova play the second quarterfinal today in the Big East tourney.
Line: Villanova -5, O/U 141.5
Villanova won the regular season matchup 78-76 at Marquette, but that was Jan 2, which feels like a season ago at this point.
Efficiency Ratings:
Villanova offense 8 defense 56 tempo 13
Marquette offense 23 defense 39 tempo 304
Villanova is better on offense, Marquette is better on defense. The big difference is the tempo for the teams. Marquette plays at a much slower pace than Villanova meaning this game could very well come down to who dictates the pace. Villanova will continually try to push it, Marquette will try to keep it a half court game.
By looking at tempo and efficiency alone, the advantage goes to Nova by 1 point.
Four Factors
Effective FG%: The teams are identical at offensive eFG%, but Nova gets an advantage at the defensive end rated 86 to 155. villanova
Turnover%: Villanova is ranked 94 and 112, Marquette 8 and 60. Marquette turns it over much less and turns over its opponent more often. Marquette
Offensive Rebound%: Villanova is ranked 26 and 134, Marquette 200 and 187. Villanova
FT%: Villanova gets to the line at a rate ranked 47 while putting the opponent on the line a lot, ranked 329. Marquette is 250 and 22. This is a major stat. Villanova gets to the line a lot but Marquette does not foul. At the same time Nova puts the opponent on the line a lot. Marquette
I would have to give the Four Factors edge to Marquette. They have a definitive advantage at the line and in the turnover battle while the only real advantage for Villanova is the rebounding since the eFG% is very close.
Misc Stats
3P%: Marquette is rated 7 and 28 while Villanova is rated 52 and 111. Marquette
2P%: Villanova 60 and 72, Marquette152 and 254. Villanova
Block%: Both teams get blocked too much as both are well below average, but only Villanova is good at blocking ranked 66, Marquette is ranked 318. Villanova
Pick: Marquette, take the points.
These teams have already played a close game and almost all of Marquette’s losses this year have been nail-biters. Both teams have some advantages: Marquette wins the turnover, free throws attempted, and three point% categories; Villanova wins the rebounding and block% and although they are slightly better at defensive eFG% it is not enough to really be an edge. I feel these teams are a tossup, which makes me take the points.
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