There has been some rumblings for the past week about the Badgers being a final four contender, and I love that talk.  For the Badgers to get any positive press is great since they are so often lauded for their ball control style.  A couple of weeks ago I wrote about how the offensive and defensive efficiency of teams can give you a real good idea regarding what that teams chances really are for the national title and the final four.

The Badgers have good efficiency ratings, but not as good as we need to get into the final four.  The Badgers are ranked 5th in defense, and 17th in offense.  Here I go into detail what teams efficiency ratings have been in the past to be considered true contenders.  Basically, the Badgers need to get better on offense.  To really be a contender the team needs to be in the top 10 of efficiency, the Badgers are close, but being at 17 means they have likely had some lulls even if they have been good overall.  I think a lull is a great word to use for the Badgers when describing their losses at Michigan State and Ohio State.  In both games the Badgers struggled to score for extended stretches.

One big factor working in the Badgers favor is they will get Leuer back before the tourneys.  If they can work him back into the rotation before March, that will be great.  A healthy Leuer could propel Wisconsin into the top 10 of offensive efficiency, making a team who takes care of the ball, does not foul, and can now score, EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.

Here is the current top 10 according to KenPom.

1.  Kansas #2 Off  #2Def

2. Duke  #1 Off  #22Def

3.  Syracuse  8, 7

4.  Wisconsin 17,5

5. West Virginia 4, 25

6.  Kentucky 14, 21

7. BYU  13, 24

8. Maryland 15, 23

9. Kansas St  16, 20

10.  Purdue 22, 17

 11. Villanova 3, 55

I included #11 Villanova due to my belief that they will be a popular pick to make the final four.  Teams do not have to be great at both defense and offense, but they need to be great at one, which Nova is with offense, and ok at the the other, which Nova is not with a 55th rating in defense.  55 is not good enough for an offense as efficient as theirs.  This likely means they surrender a lot of offensive rebounds.

Here are some thoughts from the rankings above:

•  Kansas should be the heavy favorite if the season ended today as they are an elite offense and defense.  Unless a lot changes, they should at the very least be in your final four and a very good championship pick.
• Kentucky is not efficient enough.  They have great talent with Wall and Cousins, but this team’s efficiency stats are not that of a final four or national title team.  Maybe they are bored?
• Syracuse has good numbers but I can never trust that team.
• At least one 2 seed, maybe two, will get stuck with Wisconsin or West Virginia as a  really tough 3 seed and both have a great chance to be better than the 2 seed they each will get bracketed with.

Another team I have seen in the last couple of weeks that could get really dangerous is Georgetown.  They usually are much more efficient than they are this year, but they are getting it together.  I have seen them dismantle Duke and Villanova on consecutive Saturdays.  They will be a tough out.

If I had to throw out a final four I would say

Kansas – only easy choice.

West Virginia or Wisconsin – I think both are good, but one will get stuck in the Kansas bracket.

Georgetown - Really tough team.

Kentucky - There is nobody else to pick and they will get a 1seed in the South.  I will be looking for a reason to knock them out when I fill out my bracket.

Somebody is going to hit the jackpot by being sent out west as there is no UCLA or other really good team on the West coast.