As the NBA draft approached, being a Buck fan, I wasn’t quite sure what I wanted or expected the Bucks to get at 10.  The consensus was that the candidates likely to be chosen by Milwaukee were: Flynn, Holiday, or Jennings. The day before the draft I read a lot of articles of the candidates and I decided I would be the most happy with Jennings.  After the Bucks made the selection of Jennings, I did some research that was very interesting and could give the Bucks’ fan base some hope.

 

I went to a website, statsheet.com, which combines all recruiting rankings for a given year.  I was able to notice some patterns that suggest Jennings could be the star of the 2009 NBA Draft.  In a given recruiting year, when the top one or two recruits are the consensus 1 and 2, those players rarely bust in the NBA and usually star.  I went back to the 2001 recruiting class.  The rankings were initially based on the 5 major recruiting services and in 2003 extended it to using 7 recruiting services.

 

 

Jennings ended up having a very good Summer League for the Bucks, almost recording a triple-double in one game.  He is a lightning rod on and off the court, which is something the Bucks need.  The past recruiting rankings show us that as fans we should have expected Jennings to succeed in the summer and should expect success in the future.

 

 

Rankings by year

2001:  No consensus this year, below were the relevant players from the top 5.

1.      Eddy Curry

2.      Tyson Chandler

5.      Kwame Brown

2002:  Both were consensus 1 and 2, in all 5 recruiting services.

1.      Amare Stoudemire

2.      Carmelo Anthony

2003:  Consensus 1 and 2, all 7 ratings had them rated 1 and 2

1.      Lebron James

2.      Luol Deng

2004:  Consensus

1.      Dwight Howard

2.      Shaun Livingston

2005:  No Consensus, the ratings were all over the place.

1.      Gerald Green

2.      Josh McRoberts

3.      Monta Ellis

2006:  Consensus

1.      Greg Oden

2.      Kevin Durant

2007: No real consensus, but a good mix

1.      OJ Mayo

2.      Kevin Love

3.      Eric Gordan

4.      Michael Beasley

5.      Derrick Rose

Note:  A good class with no consensus, Mayo was 1 in 3/7, Love was 1 in 3/7, Beasley was 1 in 1, but also an 8 in one.

2008: Consensus 1

1.      Brandon Jennings

Note:  6 of the 7 recruiting rankings had Jennings 1, he was 4 in one service, but that service had BJ Mullens as #1.  The #2 prospect was Jrue Holiday, but he was not consensus, he was rated 3 or 4 in 6 of the ratings, and 2 in the other.

           

The success of NBA Draft early entrees can be tied to where they were at in their respective recruiting class.  Most of the consensus 1 or 2 players in a given class are stars, or at the very least, solid starters.  This is good news for a struggling Bucks team and fan base who need a star, and Jennings may be that star.

The rankings also show that Kwame Brown, who was rated #5 in his class, had no business going #1 overall in the Draft.  I will go through some more draft busts in the near future.